Analysis and forecast of import and export situation of my country's machine tool industry

According to the International Monetary Fund's forecast, in 2011, the GDP of developed economies will grow by about 2.4%, and the GDP of developing countries will grow by about 6.6%. It is expected that the international market demand will increase, especially the continuous expansion of my country's economic and technological cooperation with emerging economies and developing countries, the establishment of a free trade zone with the six ASEAN countries, and the signing of free trade zone agreements with Chile, Peru, Singapore and other countries. Therefore, the international economic environment in 2011 is conducive to the steady and rapid development of foreign trade in my country's machine tool industry.

However, due to the lack of momentum for the recovery of the world economy, many deep-seated contradictions and problems have yet to be resolved, and the impact of the European sovereign debt crisis, the weak recovery of the US economy, and the increased uncertainty of economic development. At the same time, the supply and demand of resource products in the international market is still tight, the prices of some raw materials may rise, and the expectation of RMB appreciation and the increase in my country's labor costs will increase the export costs of machine tools. It is necessary to pay special attention to the fact that in the case of economic downturn, trade protectionism in various countries will continue to occur. All these will have an impact on the expansion of exports in my country's machine tool industry.

The Fifth Plenary Session of the 17th CPC Central Committee pointed out that the main goals of the 12th Five-Year Plan for economic and social development are to achieve "steady and rapid economic development", "significant progress in the strategic adjustment of economic structure", and "rapid growth in urban and rural residents' income". The machine tool industry faces the important task of adjusting the economic structure and changing the development mode. It is necessary to vigorously develop emerging strategic industries, research and develop high-end CNC machine tools and their functional components, automated complete production lines, intelligent control systems, etc. With the adjustment of industrial structure and the gradual optimization of product structure, the import and export structure of machine tools will also change.

Based on the above analysis, it is expected that the import and export of the machine tool industry will continue to grow in 2011, and the import and export product structure will improve. In terms of imports, the proportion of imports of large and heavy machine tools and expensive machine tools may continue to decline, and the import of key parts and components required for the development of high-end machine tools and large and heavy machine tools by domestic enterprises will increase.

In terms of exports, in addition to a small number of high-end and large and heavy machine tools that may continue to make breakthroughs and enter the international market; medium and low-end CNC machine tools, high-quality ordinary machine tools that meet user needs, as well as metal cutting tools and molds, forging and stamping tools, machine tool parts and accessories, etc., will still be welcomed by the international market and users.

The development of the machine tool industry mainly relies on the fixed assets of the machinery industry (the equipment required is mainly machine tools) and exports. It is expected that the growth rate of fixed assets in my country's machinery industry in 2011 will not be as high as the previous years' growth of about 40% (from January to September 2010, the fixed assets of the machinery industry reached 1.34 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.35%). Therefore, expanding exports has become an important aspect to drive the development of the industry. For this reason, it is recommended to: adapt to changes in international market demand, adjust and optimize the export product structure; explore potential markets, pay attention to the impact of the European sovereign debt crisis and the quantitative easing monetary policy of the United States; actively respond to the impact of importing machine tools from Taiwan and improve competitiveness; pay attention to the analysis of imported equipment, and choose to develop products with large import volumes; avoid exchange rate risks and promote RMB settlement.